Železničar Pančevo
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 28% Železničar Pančevo, 30% draw, 42% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Železničar Pančevo 0.94, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.23.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Železničar Pančevo
- D0-0Mladost Lucani3 August 2026
- W2-1Radnicki NIS17 July 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W2-0Novi Pazar8 August 2026
- W3-1Vojvodina26 July 2026
- W5-0Macva17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Železničar Pančevo
No league goals recorded yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov3 goals1 assists
- Bruno Duarte1 goals3 assists
- A. Katai1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Železničar Pančevo carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.62 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Železničar Pančevo W-D; FK Crvena Zvezda W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for Železničar Pančevo and 1.23 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Železničar Pančevo rate 0.40 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.79 and 1.24.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Železničar Pančevo against 1.23 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Železničar Pančevo's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.24 for FK Crvena Zvezda.