Wolves
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction
The model makes it 79% Wolves, 12% draw, 9% Portsmouth — fair odds of 1.27, 8.33 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Wolves 3.29, Portsmouth 1.09.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wolves
- W3-1away to Preston22 August 2026
- D2-2Blackburn14 August 2026
Portsmouth
- W3-1away to Lincoln22 August 2026
- L1-3QPR15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Wolves
- Fer López2 goals1 assists
Portsmouth
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wolves carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.35 for Portsmouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Wolves D-W; Portsmouth L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.29 goals for Wolves and 1.09 for Portsmouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wolves rate 0.92 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portsmouth rate 0.68 and 1.89.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.29 expected goals for Wolves against 1.09 for Portsmouth. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.89 for Portsmouth.