Sporting CP
vs
Maritimo
Taça da Liga prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP 3–0 Maritimo
The model makes it 78% Sporting CP, 14% draw, 8% Maritimo — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 3.35, Maritimo 0.82.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Sporting CP are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to SC Braga.
- Maritimo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto.
- Last 6 meetings: Sporting CP 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 May 2023, ended Sporting CP 2–1 Maritimo.
Chance to go through
Taça da Liga Quarter-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Sporting CP85%
- Level after ninety minutes10%
- Maritimo5%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting CP vs Maritimo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 78% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting CP vs Maritimo
Sporting CP
- W2-0away to Lens13 October 2026
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Maritimo
- L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Maritimo
- 13 May 2023Sporting CP 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 8 January 2023Maritimo 1–0 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 13 December 2022Sporting CP 5–0 MaritimoTaça da Liga
- 26 February 2022Maritimo 1–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 24 September 2021Sporting CP 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 19 May 2021Sporting CP 5–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
A clear gap in the ratings
Sporting CP carry a model rating of 7.21 against 6.65 for Maritimo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.35 goals for Sporting CP and 0.82 for Maritimo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP rate 1.62 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maritimo rate 0.85 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.35 expected goals for Sporting CP against 0.82 for Maritimo. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.27 for Maritimo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting CP at home · Maritimo away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Sporting CP 8, Maritimo 8.
Maritimo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sporting CP have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sporting CP
- at Casa Pia30 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 74%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Moreirense7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 76%
- vs Manchester United25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 58%
Maritimo
- vs Santa Clara1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 30%
- at Estoril8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 33%
- vs Nacional27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- at Sporting CP6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 10%
- vs Rio Ave13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.