Shanghai Shenhua
vs
Shandong Luneng
Super League prediction
The model makes it 48% Shanghai Shenhua, 27% draw, 25% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 1.50, Shandong Luneng 1.00.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Shanghai Shenhua
- W1-0away to Qingdao Jonoon8 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shenyang Urban2 August 2026
- L0-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG25 July 2026
- L0-2Tianjin Teda18 July 2026
- W3-2Hangzhou Greentown5 July 2026
Shandong Luneng
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
- W1-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG1 August 2026
- L1-2Henan Jianye26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Dalian Zhixing18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shanghai Shenhua | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 22 |
| 2 | Shandong Luneng | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão13 goals
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan13 goals5 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shanghai Shenhua carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.27 for Shandong Luneng. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Shanghai Shenhua W-L-L-L-W; Shandong Luneng L-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.00 for Shandong Luneng. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.44 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shandong Luneng rate 0.56 and 1.80.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shandong Luneng, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shanghai Shenhua a 0% chance of the title and Shandong Luneng 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shanghai Shenhua the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua against 1 for Shandong Luneng. Shanghai Shenhua's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.8 for Shandong Luneng.