HNK Gorica
vs
HNK Rijeka
HNL prediction
The model makes it 27% HNK Gorica, 29% draw, 44% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: HNK Gorica 0.97, HNK Rijeka 1.32.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Gorica
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | HNK Gorica | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
- 23 May 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 22 March 2026HNK Gorica 4–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 21 December 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 5 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 4 May 2025HNK Rijeka 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 1 March 2025HNK Gorica 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
The two sides
HNK Gorica carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.6 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Gorica L-L; HNK Rijeka W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.32 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Gorica rate 0.50 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.58 and 1.03.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for HNK Gorica against 1.32 for HNK Rijeka. HNK Gorica's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.03 for HNK Rijeka.