SC Braga
vs
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 47% SC Braga, 24% draw, 29% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.76, GIL Vicente 1.33.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs GIL Vicente
- 14 February 2026GIL Vicente 2–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 14 September 2025SC Braga 0–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 9 February 2025SC Braga 2–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 1 September 2024GIL Vicente 0–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2024SC Braga 2–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 28 October 2023GIL Vicente 3–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.71 for GIL Vicente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): SC Braga W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for SC Braga and 1.33 for GIL Vicente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 0.74 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GIL Vicente rate 0.95 and 1.26.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for SC Braga against 1.33 for GIL Vicente. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.26 for GIL Vicente.