Rennes
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 27% Rennes, 21% draw, 52% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 3.70, 4.76 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Rennes 1.53, Paris Saint Germain 2.16.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain
- 13 February 2026Rennes 3–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 6 December 2025Paris Saint Germain 5–0 RennesLigue 1
- 8 March 2025Rennes 1–4 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 27 September 2024Paris Saint Germain 3–1 RennesLigue 1
- 3 April 2024Paris Saint Germain 1–0 RennesCoupe de France
- 25 February 2024Paris Saint Germain 1–1 RennesLigue 1
The two sides
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.82 against 7.13 for Paris Saint Germain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Rennes and 2.16 for Paris Saint Germain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.08 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris Saint Germain rate 1.32 and 0.75.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Rennes against 2.16 for Paris Saint Germain. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.75 for Paris Saint Germain.