Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 72% Red Bull Salzburg, 16% draw, 12% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.84, Rapid Vienna 1.12.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Red Bull Salzburg
- D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
- W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026
Rapid Vienna
- W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Rapid Vienna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Red Bull Salzburg carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.35 for Rapid Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Red Bull Salzburg W-D; Rapid Vienna W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.84 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.12 for Rapid Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Red Bull Salzburg rate 1.05 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid Vienna rate 0.51 and 1.43.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rapid Vienna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.12 for Rapid Vienna. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.43 for Rapid Vienna.