Austria Vienna
vs
WSG Wattens
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 47% Austria Vienna, 29% draw, 24% WSG Wattens — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.34, WSG Wattens 0.88.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austria Vienna
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
WSG Wattens
- L1-3away to SCR Altach7 August 2026
- D1-1Sturm Graz1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | WSG Wattens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Austria Vienna
No league goals recorded yet.
WSG Wattens
- H. Balić1 goals
- M. Olakigbe1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Austria Vienna carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.23 for WSG Wattens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Austria Vienna L; WSG Wattens D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Austria Vienna and 0.88 for WSG Wattens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Vienna rate 0.47 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; WSG Wattens rate 0.41 and 1.51.
That points to 38% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour WSG Wattens, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austria Vienna the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 0.88 for WSG Wattens. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.51 for WSG Wattens.