Puskas Academy
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
NB I prediction
The model makes it 37% Puskas Academy, 34% draw, 29% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puskas Academy 0.96, Ferencvarosi TC 0.81.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Puskas Academy
- W3-2away to MTK Budapest7 August 2026
- L0-2Kisvarda FC31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Debreceni VSC26 July 2026
Ferencvarosi TC
- D0-0Vasas2 August 2026
- L2-4away to Paks26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Puskas Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Puskas Academy vs Ferencvarosi TC
- 14 April 2026Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 30 November 2025Puskas Academy 1–2 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 16 August 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 3 May 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 9 February 2025Puskas Academy 1–0 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 29 September 2024Ferencvarosi TC 3–0 Puskas AcademyNB I
Leading scorers
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals
Ferencvarosi TC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Puskas Academy carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.62 for Ferencvarosi TC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Puskas Academy W-L-W; Ferencvarosi TC L-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Puskas Academy and 0.81 for Ferencvarosi TC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puskas Academy rate 0.60 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.42 and 0.85.
That points to 26% for over two and a half goals and 35% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (18%), 1-0 (16%), 1-1 (14%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puskas Academy the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Puskas Academy against 0.81 for Ferencvarosi TC. Puskas Academy's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/0.85 for Ferencvarosi TC.