Debreceni VSC
vs
MTK Budapest
NB I prediction
The model makes it 42% Debreceni VSC, 30% draw, 28% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Debreceni VSC 1.28, MTK Budapest 1.00.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Debreceni VSC
- W1-0Nyiregyhaza9 August 2026
- L2-4away to Ujpest2 August 2026
- L0-2Puskas Academy26 July 2026
MTK Budapest
- L2-3Puskas Academy7 August 2026
- D3-3away to Budapest Honved1 August 2026
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest
- 27 February 2026Debreceni VSC 2–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 9 November 2025MTK Budapest 3–0 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 1 August 2025Debreceni VSC 1–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 3 May 2025Debreceni VSC 0–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 7 February 2025MTK Budapest 0–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 28 September 2024Debreceni VSC 2–3 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers
Debreceni VSC
No league goals recorded yet.
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals2 assists
- G. Jurek2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Debreceni VSC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.46 for MTK Budapest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Debreceni VSC L-L-W; MTK Budapest W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Debreceni VSC and 1.00 for MTK Budapest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Debreceni VSC rate 0.53 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MTK Budapest rate 0.57 and 1.28.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MTK Budapest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Debreceni VSC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Debreceni VSC against 1 for MTK Budapest. Debreceni VSC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.28 for MTK Budapest.