Puebla
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 28% Puebla, 25% draw, 47% Toluca — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.31, Toluca 1.75.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Puebla
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026
Toluca
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Puebla carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.67 for Toluca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Puebla W-L-D-W; Toluca W-L-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Puebla and 1.75 for Toluca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puebla rate 0.56 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toluca rate 0.87 and 1.24.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toluca the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Puebla against 1.75 for Toluca. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.24 for Toluca.