NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL prediction
The model makes it 34% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 21% draw, 45% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 4.76 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.90, HNK Hajduk Split 2.19.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
- W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 7 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 16 May 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 15 March 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 13 December 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 September 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 13 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 2 February 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- M. Marić1 goals1 assists
HNK Hajduk Split
- R. Pukštas2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.48 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb W-W; HNK Hajduk Split L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.19 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.54 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.84 and 1.86.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 2.19 for HNK Hajduk Split. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.86 for HNK Hajduk Split.