NK Osijek
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction
The model makes it 67% NK Osijek, 19% draw, 14% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: NK Osijek 2.33, NK Slaven Belupo 0.97.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Osijek
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NK Osijek | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 9 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 22 May 2026NK Osijek 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 22 March 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 20 December 2025NK Osijek 0–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 4 October 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 4 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK OsijekHNL
- 2 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–0 NK OsijekCup
Leading scorers
NK Osijek
- N. Omerović4 goals
- A. León2 goals
NK Slaven Belupo
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Osijek carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.25 for NK Slaven Belupo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Osijek W-W; NK Slaven Belupo L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for NK Osijek and 0.97 for NK Slaven Belupo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Osijek rate 0.62 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.59 and 1.99.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for NK Osijek against 0.97 for NK Slaven Belupo. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.99 for NK Slaven Belupo.