Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 57% Lokomotiv Sofia, 21% draw, 22% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 2.25, CSKA Sofia 1.35.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv21 July 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.27 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv Sofia D-L-D-L; CSKA Sofia D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.35 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.84 in attack and 2.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.41 and 1.42.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.35 for CSKA Sofia. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.42 for CSKA Sofia.