NEC Nijmegen
vs
Excelsior
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 65% NEC Nijmegen, 19% draw, 16% Excelsior — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.49, Excelsior 1.20.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NEC Nijmegen
- L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
Excelsior
- W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
- 4 April 2026Excelsior 0–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 9 August 2025NEC Nijmegen 5–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 6 May 2024Excelsior 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 13 August 2023NEC Nijmegen 3–4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 19 February 2023Excelsior 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 8 October 2022NEC Nijmegen 1–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers
NEC Nijmegen
- K. Sierhuis1 goals
Excelsior
- N. Naujoks2 goals
- I. Yegoian1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.76 for Excelsior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): NEC Nijmegen L; Excelsior W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.49 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.20 for Excelsior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 1.22 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Excelsior rate 0.90 and 1.08.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Excelsior, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.49 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.2 for Excelsior. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.08 for Excelsior.