Botev Vratsa
vs
Botev Plovdiv
First League prediction
The model makes it 73% Botev Vratsa, 14% draw, 13% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.37, 7.14 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 3.25, Botev Plovdiv 1.38.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Botev Vratsa
- L1-2away to Ludogorets2 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Botev Plovdiv
- W1-0Cherno More Varna1 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.17 for Botev Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Botev Vratsa D-L-L; Botev Plovdiv D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.25 goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.38 for Botev Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Vratsa rate 0.64 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Plovdiv rate 0.64 and 2.69.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botev Plovdiv, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Vratsa the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.25 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 1.38 for Botev Plovdiv. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/2.69 for Botev Plovdiv.