Cherno More Varna
vs
Dunav Ruse
First League prediction
The model makes it 43% Cherno More Varna, 22% draw, 35% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.33, 4.55 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cherno More Varna 2.06, Dunav Ruse 1.86.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cherno More Varna
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Dunav Ruse
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cherno More Varna carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.23 for Dunav Ruse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cherno More Varna D-L-L; Dunav Ruse L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.86 for Dunav Ruse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cherno More Varna rate 0.46 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunav Ruse rate 0.65 and 2.37.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cherno More Varna the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Cherno More Varna against 1.86 for Dunav Ruse. Cherno More Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.37 for Dunav Ruse.