Jagiellonia
vs
Saburtalo
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 81% Jagiellonia, 12% draw, 7% Saburtalo — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 3.34, Saburtalo 0.99.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jagiellonia
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Saburtalo
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
- Sergio Lozano1 goals1 assists
Saburtalo
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.08 for Saburtalo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Jagiellonia W-W-L; Saburtalo W-D-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.34 goals for Jagiellonia and 0.99 for Saburtalo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.79 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saburtalo rate 0.48 and 2.24.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.34 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 0.99 for Saburtalo. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.24 for Saburtalo.