Jagiellonia
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 45% Jagiellonia, 23% draw, 32% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.92, Pogon Szczecin 1.61.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jagiellonia
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
- Sergio Lozano1 goals1 assists
Pogon Szczecin
- P. Mukairu1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.62 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Jagiellonia W-W; Pogon Szczecin L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.61 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.82 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.79 and 1.24.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogon Szczecin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.61 for Pogon Szczecin. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.24 for Pogon Szczecin.