Wisla Plock
vs
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 46% Wisla Plock, 24% draw, 30% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.82, Lech Poznan 1.43.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wisla Plock
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
- D0-0Widzew Łódź31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa26 July 2026
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wisla Plock carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.69 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wisla Plock W-D-L; Lech Poznan D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Wisla Plock and 1.43 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Plock rate 0.83 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 0.85 and 1.16.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lech Poznan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Plock the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Wisla Plock against 1.43 for Lech Poznan. Wisla Plock's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.16 for Lech Poznan.