Rizespor
vs
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 58% Rizespor, 22% draw, 20% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Rizespor 2.11, Alanyaspor 1.18.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rizespor
- L0-2Samsunspor22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Konyaspor15 August 2026
Alanyaspor
- D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rizespor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor
- 25 January 2026Rizespor 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 16 August 2025Alanyaspor 0–0 RizesporSüper Lig
- 2 March 2025Rizespor 3–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 28 September 2024Alanyaspor 1–0 RizesporSüper Lig
- 20 January 2024Alanyaspor 2–1 RizesporSüper Lig
- 19 August 2023Rizespor 0–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rizespor carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.51 for Alanyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Rizespor W-L; Alanyaspor D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Rizespor and 1.18 for Alanyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rizespor rate 0.88 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alanyaspor rate 0.64 and 1.27.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rizespor the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Rizespor against 1.18 for Alanyaspor. Rizespor's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.27 for Alanyaspor.