Estudiantes La Plata
vs
Flamengo
CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction
Our model says: Estudiantes La Plata 0–1 Flamengo
The model makes it 29% Estudiantes La Plata, 32% draw, 39% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Estudiantes La Plata 0.92, Flamengo 1.25.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Estudiantes La Plata are 2nd on 9 points from 6 games; Flamengo are top on 16 points from 6 games — CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group A.
- Estudiantes La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Corinthians.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Independiente del Valle.
- Last 4 meetings: Flamengo 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La Plata.
All CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo
Estudiantes La Plata
- W1-0away to Corinthians17 September 2026
- D1-1Corinthians10 September 2026
- W3-0away to Universidad Catolica19 August 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica12 August 2026
- W1-0Independiente Medellin27 May 2026
Flamengo
- D1-1Independiente del Valle18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Independiente del Valle11 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cruzeiro13 August 2026
- W3-0Cusco27 May 2026
What these results say
- Estudiantes La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Estudiantes La Plata | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo
- 21 May 2026Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 30 April 2026Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 26 September 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 19 September 2025Flamengo 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores
Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and Flamengo
Estudiantes La Plata
- G. Carrillo3 goals
- T. Palacios3 goals
Flamengo
- Bruno Henrique5 goals2 assists
- G. de Arrascaeta4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estudiantes La Plata carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7.07 for Flamengo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Estudiantes La Plata and 1.25 for Flamengo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.77 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Flamengo rate 1.22 and 0.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata against 1.25 for Flamengo. Estudiantes La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.79 for Flamengo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estudiantes La Plata at home · Flamengo away
League matches only, this season — Estudiantes La Plata in the Liga Profesional Argentina, Flamengo in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Estudiantes La Plata 27 in the Liga Profesional Argentina, Flamengo 28 in the Serie A.
Estudiantes La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Flamengo have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Estudiantes La Plata
- vs San Lorenzo18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
- at Flamengo20 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 16%
- at Union Santa Fe25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 33%
Flamengo
- at Bahia18 Oct · Serie Awin 40%
- vs Estudiantes La Plata20 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 57%
- vs Atletico Mineiro25 Oct · Serie Awin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.