Cruz Azul
vs
Santos Laguna
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 53% Cruz Azul, 21% draw, 26% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Cruz Azul 2.19, Santos Laguna 1.48.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cruz Azul
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026
Santos Laguna
- L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club America2 August 2026
- L0-1Atlas26 July 2026
- L2-3away to Monterrey19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Cruz Azul
- J. Márquez2 goals1 assists
Santos Laguna
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cruz Azul carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.54 for Santos Laguna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cruz Azul W-W-L-L-L; Santos Laguna L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.48 for Santos Laguna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruz Azul rate 0.94 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos Laguna rate 0.66 and 1.23.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruz Azul the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Cruz Azul against 1.48 for Santos Laguna. Cruz Azul's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.23 for Santos Laguna.