Celta Vigo
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 35% Celta Vigo, 23% draw, 42% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.86, 4.35 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.73, Osasuna 1.90.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
- 6 February 2026Celta Vigo 1–2 OsasunaLa Liga
- 26 October 2025Osasuna 2–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 21 February 2025Celta Vigo 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 1 September 2024Osasuna 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 4 February 2024Osasuna 0–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 13 August 2023Celta Vigo 0–2 OsasunaLa Liga
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.95 for Osasuna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.90 for Osasuna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 1.05 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Osasuna rate 1.07 and 0.87.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.9 for Osasuna. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.87 for Osasuna.