Bucheon FC 1995
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 74% Bucheon FC 1995, 15% draw, 11% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 1.35, 6.67 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 2.82, Pohang Steelers 1.04.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bucheon FC 1995
- D0-0Gwangju FC8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Gangwon FC1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United26 July 2026
- L2-3FC Anyang22 July 2026
- L1-3FC Seoul19 July 2026
Pohang Steelers
- W2-1away to Gwangju FC15 August 2026
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
- L0-2Jeonbuk Motors25 July 2026
- L1-3away to FC Seoul22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 24 |
| 6 | Pohang Steelers | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Pohang Steelers
- 17 May 2026Bucheon FC 1995 2–0 Pohang SteelersK League 1
- 22 March 2026Pohang Steelers 0–0 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
Leading scorers
Bucheon FC 1995
No league goals recorded yet.
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bucheon FC 1995 carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.06 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Bucheon FC 1995 L-L-D-W-D; Pohang Steelers L-L-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.82 goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.04 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.71 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.43 and 2.10.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pohang Steelers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 against 1.04 for Pohang Steelers. Bucheon FC 1995's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.1 for Pohang Steelers.