Round of 64 · 18 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

AVS vs Moreirense Taça de Portugal prediction

Vila das Aves

Our model says: AVS 1–0 Moreirense

The model makes it 40% AVS, 29% draw, 31% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: AVS 1.48, Moreirense 1.19.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

Key facts

  • AVS are 12th in Segunda Liga on 6 points from 6 games; Moreirense are 12th in Primeira Liga on 8 points from 7 games.
  • AVS have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Farense.
  • Moreirense have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Vitória SC.
  • Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Moreirense 2–2 AVS.

Live win probability

From kick-off
AVS40%2.50
Draw29%3.45
Moreirense31%3.23

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: AVS vs Moreirense

54%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AVS win Draw Moreirense win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 0–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read AVS first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 38%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AVS at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into AVS vs Moreirense

AVS

  • D0-0Farense13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
  • W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Felgueiras 193217 August 2026

Moreirense

  • D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
  • W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
  • L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Casa Pia30 August 2026

What these results say

  • AVS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Moreirense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Moreirense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

AVS and Moreirense in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
12AVSSegunda Liga61326606
12MoreirensePrimeira Liga7223814-68

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Segunda Liga · Primeira Liga

Head-to-head: AVS vs Moreirense

  • 18 July 2026Moreirense 2–2 AVSFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 May 2026Moreirense 0–0 AVSPrimeira Liga
  • 3 January 2026AVS 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 17 May 2025AVS 0–3 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 4 January 2025Moreirense 1–1 AVSPrimeira Liga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

AVS carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.62 for Moreirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for AVS and 1.19 for Moreirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

AVS rate 0.74 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moreirense rate 0.77 and 1.23.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AVS the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for AVS against 1.19 for Moreirense. AVS's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.23 for Moreirense.

Season stats

AVSMoreirense
6Matches7
1W 3D 2LRecord2W 2D 3L
6 1.0 a gameGoals scored8 1.1 a game
6 1.0 a gameGoals conceded14 2.0 a game
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 7
2 of 6Failed to score2 of 7
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
16 2.7 a gameYellow cards18 2.6 a game
1Red cards1
4-3-3 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

AVS at home · Moreirense away

3Played4
1W 1D 1LRecord1W 1D 2L
2–1Goals for – against3–7
2 of 3Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, this season — AVS in the Segunda Liga, Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: AVS 6 in the Segunda Liga, Moreirense 7 in the Primeira Liga.

AVS scored 010311
Moreirense conceded 113323

AVS score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Moreirense have let in 3 there.

Moreirense scored 150102
AVS conceded 011004

Moreirense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); AVS have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

AVS

  • vs Tondela25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 41%
  • at União de Leiria31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 34%
  • vs Vizela6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
  • at Benfica B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
  • vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 47%

Moreirense

  • at Estoril25 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 32%
  • vs Estrela31 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 36%
  • at Sporting CP7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 14%
  • vs Santa Clara28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 29%
  • at Alverca6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 29%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.