Academica
vs
Amarante
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: Academica 2–1 Amarante
The model makes it 42% Academica, 28% draw, 30% Amarante — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Academica 1.72, Amarante 1.26.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Academica are 8th on 9 points from 6 games; Amarante are 15th on 5 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Academica are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Benfica B.
- Amarante have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to União de Leiria.
- Last 3 meetings: Amarante 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Academica 1–1 Amarante.
All Taça de Portugal predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Academica vs Amarante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Academica at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Academica vs Amarante
Academica
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
- L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Tondela21 August 2026
- W1-0Feirense14 August 2026
Amarante
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
- L0-1Lusitânia Lourosa16 August 2026
What these results say
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Academica vs Amarante
- 12 April 2026Academica 1–1 AmaranteLiga 3
- 29 March 2026Amarante 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 22 October 2023Amarante 1–0 AcademicaTaça de Portugal
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Academica carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.32 for Amarante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Academica and 1.26 for Amarante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Academica rate 0.66 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amarante rate 0.55 and 1.60.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academica the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Academica against 1.26 for Amarante. Academica's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.6 for Amarante.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Academica at home · Amarante away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Academica 6, Amarante 6.
Academica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Amarante have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Academica
- vs Leixoes24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Vizela1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
- vs Amarante7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
- at Portimonense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Torreense30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
Amarante
- at Torreense26 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 21%
- vs FC Porto B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Academica7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Felgueiras 193215 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.