4 October 2026, 22:15 UTC

Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Buenos Aires
Referee: Carlos Andres Gariano, Argentina
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Argentinos Juniors 2-1 Tigre.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Argentinos Juniors, 33% draw, 25% Tigre — fair odds of 2.38, 3.03 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Argentinos Juniors at 42%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Argentinos Juniors98%Draw2%Tigre0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. Gutierrezassist: M. Gimenez
6'
⚽G. Veronassist: S. Prieto
42'
45+5'
⚽Jabes Saralegui (pen)
45+2'
•Federico Álvarez
57'
⚽J. Dominaassist: J. Saralegui
58'
🔁J. Saraleguiout: I. Peluffo
🔁M. Gimenezout: F. Carrizo
60'
🔁H. Lopezout: D. Porcel
72'
🔁G. Veronout: F. Jainikoski
72'
Franco Paredes
76'
🔁F. Paredesout: F. Vazquez
77'
78'
Santiago López
Nicolas Oroz
83'
85'
🔁S. Gonzalezout: M. Garay
85'
🔁I. Russoout: A. Oviedo
85'
🔁V. Morenoout: M. Fernandez
88'
Jeronimo Domina

Match stats — Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre

45%Possession55%
13Shots13
5On target4
4Corners3
0.66xG1.71

Goals against chances

Argentinos Juniors2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
Tigre1 from 1.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Argentinos Juniors 4-3-1-2
  • 12G. Siri PayerG
  • 17F. ParedesD
  • 23M. MendozaD
  • 16F. AlvarezD
  • 20S. PrietoD
  • 8H. LopezM
  • 15K. GutierrezM
  • 19M. GimenezM
  • 11N. OrozM
  • 27T. MolinaF
  • 9G. VeronF
Substitutes
  • 1A. MangiautG
  • 26C. BravoD
  • 6F. VazquezD
  • 4E. GodoyD
  • 22K. CoronelD
  • 5F. CarrizoD
  • 18F. MancuelloM
  • 28J. GhoM
  • 34R. Kida
Coach: Nicolas Diez
Tigre 4-4-2
  • 12F. T. ZenobioG
  • 4V. MorenoD
  • 2J. LasoD
  • 20A. BarrionuevoD
  • 24F. AlvarezD
  • 10J. SaraleguiM
  • 27S. GonzalezM
  • 5B. LeyesM
  • 22S. LopezM
  • 29I. RussoF
  • 30J. DominaF
Substitutes
  • 26L. MoralesG
  • 17G. SotoD
  • 8M. GarayM
  • 32J. VillalbaD
  • 23G. RequenaD
  • 40L. MinnitiD
  • 21S. MedinaM
  • 11T. SerragoM
  • 19A. OviedoF
Coach: Diego Dabove

Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre

Argentinos Juniors

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Rosario Central20 September 2026
  • D1-1Gimnasia La Plata13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Barracas Central7 September 2026
  • W2-1Aldosivi30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Lanus25 August 2026

Tigre

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Velez Sarsfield21 September 2026
  • L0-1Rosario Central13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
  • D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
  • W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026

What these results say

  • Argentinos Juniors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors had two goals or fewer.
  • Tigre failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tigre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Argentinos Juniors159422012+831
11Tigre154471516-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre

  • 16 March 2026Tigre 1–1 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 July 2025Tigre 2–1 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 31 January 2025Argentinos Juniors 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 July 2024Argentinos Juniors 0–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 6 March 2023Tigre 0–1 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Argentinos Juniors vs Tigre record →

Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Tigre

Argentinos Juniors

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Tigre

GoalsAssists

  • I. Russo83
  • M. Méndez73
  • D. Romero72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Argentinos Juniors beat Tigre 2–1. The model had made a win for Argentinos Juniors its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: K. Gutierrez 6' for Argentinos Juniors, G. Veron 42' for Argentinos Juniors, J. Domina 57' for Tigre. On expected goals it finished 0.66–1.71.

How the call on Argentinos Juniors v Tigre has moved

First published on 19 Sep at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 33% / 25%: the biggest move is Argentinos Juniors's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Argentinos Juniors win42%▼ −4
  2. Draw33%▲ +4
  3. Tigre win25%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.