Ghazl El Mehalla
vs
Al Ittihad Alexandria
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Ghazl El Mehalla 0–1 Al Ittihad Alexandria
The model makes it 28% Ghazl El Mehalla, 32% draw, 40% Al Ittihad Alexandria — fair odds of 3.57, 3.13 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Ghazl El Mehalla 0.83, Al Ittihad Alexandria 1.18.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Ghazl El Mehalla are bottom on 1 point from 5 games; Al Ittihad Alexandria are 6th on 10 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Ghazl El Mehalla have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Zamalek SC.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Al Masry.
- Last 6 meetings: Ghazl El Mehalla 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 May 2026, ended Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Al Ittihad Alexandria.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ittihad Alexandria at 40% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria
Ghazl El Mehalla
- L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Future FC27 August 2026
- L0-3Pyramids FC22 August 2026
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
- W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
- L1-3Ceramica Cleopatra28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Zamalek SC21 August 2026
What these results say
- Ghazl El Mehalla did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Ittihad Alexandria had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria
- 18 May 2026Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 2 March 2026Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 10 May 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 21 December 2024Ghazl El Mehalla 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 31 March 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 30 November 2022Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–2 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
Leading scorers: Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad Alexandria
Ghazl El Mehalla
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- Hossam Hassan2 goals
- J. Ebuka1 goal1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ghazl El Mehalla carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.38 for Al Ittihad Alexandria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.83 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.18 for Al Ittihad Alexandria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ghazl El Mehalla rate 0.48 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Ittihad Alexandria rate 0.61 and 1.56.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ittihad Alexandria the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla against 1.18 for Al Ittihad Alexandria. Ghazl El Mehalla's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.56 for Al Ittihad Alexandria.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ghazl El Mehalla at home · Al Ittihad Alexandria away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Ghazl El Mehalla 5, Al Ittihad Alexandria 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ghazl El Mehalla
- at Abu Qair Semad31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Petrojet25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Al Ahly10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Al Masry16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- vs El Geish30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Wadi Degla24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Enppi8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Olympic El Qanah15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.