Regular Season - 12 · 28 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Nice vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction

Allianz Riviera, Nice

Our model says: Nice 1–0 Estac Troyes

The model makes it 52% Nice, 27% draw, 21% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Nice 1.65, Estac Troyes 0.86.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.

Edge to Nice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Nice's rating is built from 46 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Estac Troyes's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.

Key facts

Nice are 6th on 17 points from 10 games; Estac Troyes are 17th on 8 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
Nice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Angers.
Estac Troyes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Paris Saint Germain.
Last 6 meetings: Nice 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 April 2023, ended Estac Troyes 0–1 Nice.

More Ligue 1 (France) predictions

All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nice vs Estac Troyes

47%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nice win Draw Estac Troyes win

1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–09%
0–16%
3–06%

Scores read Nice first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nice at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Nice vs Estac Troyes

Nice

Ligue 1

W2-0away to Angers8 November 2026
W5-2Rennes30 October 2026
W2-1away to Stade Brestois 2923 October 2026
L1-2away to Lyon18 October 2026
W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026

Estac Troyes

Ligue 1

L0-1away to Paris Saint Germain7 November 2026
W2-0Le Mans31 October 2026
D0-0away to Toulouse25 October 2026
L1-3Lens17 October 2026
L0-2Marseille11 October 2026

What these results say

Nice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Nice won 4 of these 5 matches.
Nice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Estac Troyes had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	15	12	+3	17
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	7	17	-10	8

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Estac Troyes

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 28% today

Win 21%

Draw 26%

Defeat 31%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Nice

Estac Troyes and Nice have met 6 times in the records we hold, Nice has won 4 of them to Estac Troyes's 2.

The record

Nice won the last one 1–0 on 30 Apr 2023.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Estac Troyes	2	0	4	5	8
Nice	4	0	2	8	5

Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

30 Apr 2023
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 0–1 Nice
9 Oct 2022
Ligue 1Nice 3–2 Estac Troyes
24 Apr 2022
Ligue 1Nice 1–0 Estac Troyes
17 Oct 2021
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 1–0 Nice
1 Apr 2018
Ligue 1Estac Troyes 0–2 Nice
11 Aug 2017
Ligue 1Nice 1–2 Estac Troyes

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Nice's attack rates 46% above Estac Troyes', and Nice concede 6% fewer than Estac Troyes. That gives Nice the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Estac Troyes	0.61	1.10
Nice	0.89	1.03

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Nice and Estac Troyes

Nice

GoalsAssists

E. Wahi62

Estac Troyes

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nice a 0.2% chance of the title and Estac Troyes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Nice Estac Troyes

0.89 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61

1.03 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.1

1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 0.86

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nice the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Nice against 0.86 for Estac Troyes. Nice's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.1 for Estac Troyes.

Nice carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.57 for Estac Troyes.

How the model reaches 52% for Nice to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Nice to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Nice's ratings add 7 points and Estac Troyes's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level40%−3
Nice's ratings47%+7
Estac Troyes's ratings52%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

NiceModelEstac Troyes

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

72%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

46%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

10%

1 of 10 games

24%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

47%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

NiceEstac Troyes

10Matches10

5W 2D 3LRecord2W 2D 6L

15 1.5 per gameGoals scored7 0.7 per game

12 1.2 per gameGoals conceded17 1.7 per game

2 of 10Clean sheets3 of 10

3 of 10Failed to score6 of 10

2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1

24 2.4 per gameYellow cards18 1.8 per game

3-4-2-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

Nice at home · Estac Troyes away

5Played5

3W 2D 0LRecord1W 1D 3L

10–5Goals for – against2–6

1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

NiceEstac Troyes

Nice are 6th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 5th and 17th so far); Estac Troyes are 17th after 10 (between 2nd and 17th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Nice 10, Estac Troyes 10.

Nice scored 212233

Estac Troyes conceded 014603

Estac Troyes scored 222010

Nice conceded 324212

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Nice

at Marseille6 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
vs Lens12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
at Monaco2 Jan · Ligue 1win 24%
vs Le Havre16 Jan · Ligue 1win 54%

Estac Troyes

vs Lyon6 Dec · Ligue 1win 25%
at Stade Brestois 2912 Dec · Ligue 1win 19%
vs Rennes2 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%
at Auxerre16 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.