Regular Season - 4 · 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové Czech Liga prediction

Brno

The model makes it 25% Zbrojovka Brno, 25% draw, 50% Hradec Králové — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 1.16, Hradec Králové 1.73.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

57%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 10%0-1 9%

Form going into this match

Zbrojovka Brno

  • L0-1Slovan Liberec7 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Plzen1 August 2026
  • W3-1Sparta Praha25 July 2026

Hradec Králové

  • W2-1Baník Ostrava9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
  • W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Zbrojovka Brno311143+14
5Hradec Králové321042+27

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Leading scorers

Zbrojovka Brno

  • D. Vašulín2 goals

Hradec Králové

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Zbrojovka Brno carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.97 for Hradec Králové. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Zbrojovka Brno W-D-L; Hradec Králové W-D-W.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.73 for Hradec Králové. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.75 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hradec Králové rate 1.04 and 0.82.

That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 1.73 for Hradec Králové. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.82 for Hradec Králové.