Bohemians 1905
vs
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 55% Bohemians 1905, 23% draw, 22% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bohemians 1905 1.93, FK Jablonec 1.13.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bohemians 1905
- W2-0away to Zlin8 August 2026
- D0-0Hradec Králové2 August 2026
- L1-3away to Teplice25 July 2026
FK Jablonec
- W1-0Slovácko9 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bohemians 1905 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bohemians 1905 carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.55 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Bohemians 1905 L-D-W; FK Jablonec W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.13 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bohemians 1905 rate 0.81 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.69 and 1.26.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Jablonec, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bohemians 1905 the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 against 1.13 for FK Jablonec. Bohemians 1905's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.26 for FK Jablonec.