Viking
vs
Aalesund
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 66% Viking, 17% draw, 17% Aalesund — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Viking 2.71, Aalesund 1.36.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Viking
- L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
- W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Start1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
Aalesund
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
- L2-6Tromso2 August 2026
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
- L1-6away to Valerenga16 July 2026
- D2-2Molde11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | +23 | 40 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Viking vs Aalesund
- 26 July 2026Aalesund 1–1 VikingEliteserien
- 18 March 2026Viking 1–2 AalesundNM Cupen
- 25 June 2025Aalesund 0–1 VikingNM Cupen
- 26 November 2023Aalesund 0–4 VikingEliteserien
- 24 July 2023Viking 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 2 October 2022Aalesund 2–1 VikingEliteserien
Leading scorers
Viking
- P. Christiansen8 goals4 assists
Aalesund
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Viking carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.46 for Aalesund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Viking W-D-W-W-L; Aalesund D-L-D-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for Viking and 1.36 for Aalesund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viking rate 0.83 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aalesund rate 0.77 and 1.73.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viking a 23.3% chance of the title and Aalesund 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Viking against 1.36 for Aalesund. Viking's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.73 for Aalesund.