Valerenga
vs
Molde
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 29% Valerenga, 22% draw, 49% Molde — fair odds of 3.45, 4.55 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Valerenga 1.57, Molde 2.07.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Valerenga
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
- L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
- W6-1Aalesund16 July 2026
- L0-4away to Tromso11 July 2026
Molde
- L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
- D3-3Sarpsborg 08 FF2 August 2026
- W4-2away to KFUM Oslo26 July 2026
- L1-2Brann18 July 2026
- D2-2away to Aalesund11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Valerenga | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 20 |
| 5 | Molde | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Molde
- 26 April 2026Molde 5–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 28 September 2025Molde 4–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 22 June 2025Valerenga 2–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 19 August 2023Molde 0–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 15 July 2023Valerenga 0–4 MoldeEliteserien
- 13 November 2022Valerenga 1–2 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers
Valerenga
- L. Haren6 goals1 assists
Molde
- E. Breivik7 goals5 assists
- E. Hestad6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Valerenga carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.73 for Molde. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Valerenga L-W-W-L-L; Molde D-L-W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Valerenga and 2.07 for Molde. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valerenga rate 0.76 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Molde rate 0.85 and 1.09.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Molde the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Valerenga against 2.07 for Molde. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.09 for Molde.