St Johnstone
vs
Celtic
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 40% St Johnstone, 22% draw, 38% Celtic — fair odds of 2.50, 4.55 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St Johnstone 2.00, Celtic 1.96.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St Johnstone
- L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
- W4-3Kilmarnock2 August 2026
Celtic
- W5-1away to Kilmarnock9 August 2026
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler1 goals1 assists
- K. Fotheringham1 goals
- C. Diabate1 goals
Celtic
- B. Nygren1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St Johnstone carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.72 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): St Johnstone W-L; Celtic W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for St Johnstone and 1.96 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Johnstone rate 0.86 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.95 and 1.23.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Celtic, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for St Johnstone against 1.96 for Celtic. St Johnstone's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.23 for Celtic.