Hibernian
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 36% Hibernian, 23% draw, 41% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.78, 4.35 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.71, Kilmarnock 1.85.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hibernian
- W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026
- L1-2Motherwell2 August 2026
Kilmarnock
- L1-5Celtic9 August 2026
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hibernian
No league goals recorded yet.
Kilmarnock
- G. Kiltie1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.41 for Kilmarnock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hibernian L-W; Kilmarnock L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Hibernian and 1.85 for Kilmarnock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kilmarnock rate 0.74 and 1.81.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hibernian, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.85 for Kilmarnock. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.81 for Kilmarnock.