Falkirk
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 40% Falkirk, 27% draw, 33% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Falkirk 1.39, Heart of Midlothian 1.23.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Falkirk
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
- L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Falkirk carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.33 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Falkirk L-D; Heart of Midlothian L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Falkirk and 1.23 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Falkirk rate 0.51 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.50 and 1.44.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Falkirk the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Falkirk against 1.23 for Heart of Midlothian. Falkirk's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.44 for Heart of Midlothian.