Sporting CP
vs
Nacional
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 63% Sporting CP, 22% draw, 15% Nacional — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 1.98, Nacional 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sporting CP
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
- W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026
Nacional
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Nacional
- 1 February 2026Sporting CP 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 23 August 2025Nacional 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Sporting CP 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 29 October 2024Sporting CP 3–1 NacionalTaça da Liga
- 17 August 2024Nacional 1–6 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 1 May 2021Sporting CP 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Sporting CP
- F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists
- R. Zalazar1 goals1 assists
Nacional
- Léo Santos1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting CP carry a model rating of 7.07 against 6.79 for Nacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sporting CP D-W-W; Nacional D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Sporting CP and 0.86 for Nacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP rate 1.06 in attack and 0.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional rate 0.88 and 0.99.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Sporting CP against 0.86 for Nacional. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.99 for Nacional.