Maritimo
vs
Benfica
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 47% Maritimo, 20% draw, 33% Benfica — fair odds of 2.13, 5.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Maritimo 2.36, Benfica 1.98.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Maritimo
- D2-2Academico Viseu22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Famalicao16 August 2026
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Benfica
- W7-0away to Casa Pia17 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Benfica
- 12 March 2023Maritimo 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 18 September 2022Benfica 5–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 30 April 2022Maritimo 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 19 December 2021Benfica 7–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 5 April 2021Benfica 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 30 November 2020Maritimo 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Maritimo
- Maurice Osei Boakye1 goals
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis4 goals1 assists
- G. Prestianni2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maritimo carry a model rating of 7 against 7.1 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Maritimo W-W-D; Benfica D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Maritimo and 1.98 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maritimo rate 1.21 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.59 and 1.03.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 78% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maritimo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Maritimo against 1.98 for Benfica. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/1.03 for Benfica.