Slavia Sofia
vs
Levski Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 18% Slavia Sofia, 33% draw, 49% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 5.56, 3.03 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (20%).
Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 0.58, Levski Sofia 1.14.
Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Slavia Sofia
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Slavia Sofia carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.62 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Slavia Sofia D-L-D; Levski Sofia W-W-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.58 goals for Slavia Sofia and 1.14 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Sofia rate 0.31 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.58 and 0.99.
That points to 25% for over two and a half goals and 30% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (20%), 0-0 (19%), 1-1 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 1.14 for Levski Sofia. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.31/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/0.99 for Levski Sofia.