SC Braga
vs
Famalicao
Taça da Liga prediction
Our model says: SC Braga 1–0 Famalicao
The model makes it 53% SC Braga, 26% draw, 21% Famalicao — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.78, Famalicao 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to SC Braga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- SC Braga are 9th on 11 points from 7 games; Famalicao are 13th on 7 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- SC Braga have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Sporting CP.
- Famalicao have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Alverca.
- Last 6 meetings: SC Braga 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended SC Braga 2–2 Famalicao.
Chance to go through
Taça da Liga Quarter-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- SC Braga57%
- Level after ninety minutes24%
- Famalicao19%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça da Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Braga vs Famalicao
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 53% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Braga vs Famalicao
SC Braga
- L1-3Sporting CP9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
Famalicao
- L1-4Alverca12 October 2026
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Famalicao failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Famalicao scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Famalicao
- 19 April 2026SC Braga 2–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 6 December 2025Famalicao 1–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 25 April 2025Famalicao 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 16 December 2024SC Braga 3–3 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 18 January 2024Famalicao 1–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 11 August 2023SC Braga 1–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Famalicao
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor31
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.8 for Famalicao. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for SC Braga and 0.93 for Famalicao. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 1.14 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Famalicao rate 0.87 and 0.96.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for SC Braga against 0.93 for Famalicao. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.96 for Famalicao.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Braga at home · Famalicao away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: SC Braga 7, Famalicao 8.
SC Braga score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Famalicao have let in 2 there.
Famalicao score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); SC Braga have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SC Braga
- vs Famalicao1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 49%
- at Aarhus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
Famalicao
- at SC Braga1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- vs Arouca6 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at Benfica30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 14%
- vs Academico Viseu6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at Moreirense13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.