Gimnasia Mendoza
vs
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 47% Gimnasia Mendoza, 22% draw, 31% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 2.12, Boca Juniors 1.71.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gimnasia Mendoza
- W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026
- W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
Boca Juniors
- D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield8 August 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica9 goals
Boca Juniors
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia Mendoza carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.71 for Boca Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Gimnasia Mendoza L-W-L-W-W; Boca Juniors L-D-W-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 1.71 for Boca Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.91 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boca Juniors rate 0.93 and 1.23.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Boca Juniors, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gimnasia Mendoza a 0% chance of the title and Boca Juniors 56.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 1.71 for Boca Juniors. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.23 for Boca Juniors.