Paks
vs
Ujpest
NB I prediction
The model makes it 83% Paks, 9% draw, 8% Ujpest — fair odds of 1.20, 11.11 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1 (5%).
Expected goals: Paks 5.00, Ujpest 1.93.
Both teams to score: 85%. Over 2.5 goals: 97%, under 2.5: 3%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Paks
- D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026
- L2-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE3 August 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
Ujpest
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
- W4-2Debreceni VSC2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Paks | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 1 | Ujpest | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Paks
- J. Szalai3 goals1 assists
- M. Pető2 goals
Ujpest
- E. Amenyido2 goals3 assists
- K. Horváth2 goals1 assists
- A. Matko2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Paks carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.12 for Ujpest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Paks W-L-D; Ujpest L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 5.00 goals for Paks and 1.93 for Ujpest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paks rate 1.13 in attack and 2.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ujpest rate 0.55 and 2.44.
That points to 97% for over two and a half goals and 85% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 4-1 (5%), 5-1 (5%), 4-2 (5%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ujpest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 83%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 5 expected goals for Paks against 1.93 for Ujpest. Paks's attack/defence rating is 1.13/2.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.44 for Ujpest.