Kisvarda FC
vs
Debreceni VSC
NB I prediction
The model makes it 28% Kisvarda FC, 31% draw, 41% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 3.57, 3.23 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Kisvarda FC 0.91, Debreceni VSC 1.18.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kisvarda FC
- L2-4Ujpest8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Puskas Academy31 July 2026
- D1-1Budapest Honved25 July 2026
Debreceni VSC
- W1-0Nyiregyhaza9 August 2026
- L2-4away to Ujpest2 August 2026
- L0-2Puskas Academy26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kisvarda FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Debreceni VSC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc3 goals
Debreceni VSC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kisvarda FC carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.46 for Debreceni VSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kisvarda FC D-W-L; Debreceni VSC L-L-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.18 for Debreceni VSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kisvarda FC rate 0.39 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Debreceni VSC rate 0.54 and 1.23.
That points to 35% for over two and a half goals and 42% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kisvarda FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Debreceni VSC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Kisvarda FC against 1.18 for Debreceni VSC. Kisvarda FC's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.23 for Debreceni VSC.