OFK Beograd
vs
IMT Novi Beograd
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 40% OFK Beograd, 31% draw, 29% IMT Novi Beograd — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: OFK Beograd 1.17, IMT Novi Beograd 0.96.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
OFK Beograd
- L0-2away to Cukaricki15 August 2026
- D2-2Železničar Pančevo9 August 2026
- W4-1away to Novi Pazar1 August 2026
- D0-0Radnik Surdulica25 July 2026
- L0-4away to Vojvodina19 July 2026
IMT Novi Beograd
- D0-0Radnicki NIS16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Macva9 August 2026
- W2-1away to FK Partizan2 August 2026
- W4-0Zemun25 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cukaricki19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 |
| 2 | IMT Novi Beograd | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Beograd
- 22 March 2026OFK Beograd 3–3 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 25 October 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 26 February 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 OFK BeogradSuper Liga
- 28 September 2024OFK Beograd 4–3 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 19 October 2019IMT Novi Beograd 2–0 OFK BeogradSrpska Liga - Belgrade
Leading scorers
OFK Beograd
- Y. Silue3 goals
IMT Novi Beograd
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
OFK Beograd carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.38 for IMT Novi Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): OFK Beograd L-D-W-D-L; IMT Novi Beograd W-W-W-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for OFK Beograd and 0.96 for IMT Novi Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OFK Beograd rate 0.55 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.37 and 1.13.
That points to 36% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour IMT Novi Beograd, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OFK Beograd the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for OFK Beograd against 0.96 for IMT Novi Beograd. OFK Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.13 for IMT Novi Beograd.