Novi Pazar
vs
Železničar Pančevo
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 44% Novi Pazar, 29% draw, 27% Železničar Pančevo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Novi Pazar 1.35, Železničar Pančevo 1.00.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Novi Pazar
- W2-0Vojvodina17 August 2026
- L0-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda8 August 2026
- L1-4OFK Beograd1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani26 July 2026
- W1-0Radnicki 192318 July 2026
Železničar Pančevo
- D2-2away to OFK Beograd9 August 2026
- D0-0Mladost Lucani3 August 2026
- W2-1Radnicki NIS17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Novi Pazar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Železničar Pančevo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo
- 17 May 2026Novi Pazar 2–2 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 4 April 2026Železničar Pančevo 2–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 2 November 2025Novi Pazar 1–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 17 March 2025Novi Pazar 3–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 26 October 2024Železničar Pančevo 0–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 18 May 2024Železničar Pančevo 3–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Novi Pazar carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.23 for Železničar Pančevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Novi Pazar W-D-L-L-W; Železničar Pančevo W-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.00 for Železničar Pančevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novi Pazar rate 0.48 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Železničar Pančevo rate 0.41 and 1.49.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novi Pazar the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Novi Pazar against 1 for Železničar Pančevo. Novi Pazar's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.49 for Železničar Pančevo.