FK Crvena Zvezda
vs
FK Partizan
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 72% FK Crvena Zvezda, 16% draw, 12% FK Partizan — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.63, FK Partizan 0.99.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W2-0Novi Pazar8 August 2026
- W3-1Vojvodina26 July 2026
- W5-0Macva17 July 2026
FK Partizan
- L0-1Radnicki 192316 August 2026
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Macva26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Zemun18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan
- 26 April 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 22 February 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 20 September 2025FK Partizan 1–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
- 12 April 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 22 February 2025FK Crvena Zvezda 3–3 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 23 September 2024FK Partizan 0–4 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
Leading scorers
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov3 goals1 assists
FK Partizan
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FK Crvena Zvezda carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.17 for FK Partizan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Crvena Zvezda W-W-W; FK Partizan D-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.63 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.99 for FK Partizan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.65 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Partizan rate 0.55 and 2.14.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.63 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 0.99 for FK Partizan. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.14 for FK Partizan.