KI Klaksvik
vs
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 14% KI Klaksvik, 20% draw, 66% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 7.14, 5.00 and 1.52. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: KI Klaksvik 0.90, Lech Poznan 2.19.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
KI Klaksvik
No earlier matches on record this season.
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
A clear gap in the ratings
KI Klaksvik carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.69 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): KI Klaksvik W-W-D-L; Lech Poznan D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for KI Klaksvik and 2.19 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KI Klaksvik rate 0.41 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 0.85 and 1.16.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.9 expected goals for KI Klaksvik against 2.19 for Lech Poznan. KI Klaksvik's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.16 for Lech Poznan.