FC Thun
vs
Servette FC
Super League prediction
The model makes it 32% FC Thun, 23% draw, 45% Servette FC — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.56, Servette FC 1.90.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Servette FC
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Zurich1 August 2026
- L0-1FC Basel 189325 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.59 for Servette FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Thun W-L-L; Servette FC L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for FC Thun and 1.90 for Servette FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.63 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Servette FC rate 0.78 and 1.31.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Servette FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.9 for Servette FC. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.31 for Servette FC.